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The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems Vol.10 No.5 pp.113-123
선택기반 다세대 확산모형을 이용한 전기자동차 수요예측 방법론 개발
A Demand forecasting for Electric vehicles using Choice Based Multigeneration Diffusion Model
Abstract
Recently, the global warming problem has arised around world, many nations has set up a various regulations for decreasing CO2. In particular, CO2 emissions reduction effect is very powerful in transport part, so there is a rising interest about development of green car, or electric vehicle in auto industry. For this reason, it is important to make a strategy for charging infra and forcast electric power demand, but it hasn't introduced about demand forecasting electric vehicle. Thus, this paper presents a demand forecasting for electric vehicles using choice based multigeneration diffusion model. In this paper, it estimates innovation coefficient, immitation coefficient in Bass model by using hybrid car market data and forecast electric vehicle market by year using potential demand market through SP(Stated Preference) experiment. Also, It facilitates more accurate demand forecasting electric vehicle market refelcting multigeneration diffusion model in accordance with attribute progress in development of electric vehicle. Through demand forecasting methodology in this paper, it can be utilized power supply and building a charging infra in the future.
