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The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems Vol.24 No.6 pp.63-78
기상 충격이 공유자전거와 대중교통 수단 전이에 미치는 동적 영향 분석 : 벡터 자기회귀(VAR) 모형을 중심으로
Dynamic Impacts of Weather Shocks on Modal Shifts between Shared Bicycles and Public Transport : A Vector AutoRegression(VAR) Model Approach
Abstract
As climate change increases the frequency of adverse weather events, understanding their impact on shared mobility has become critical for urban transportation planning. This study empirically investigates the dynamic modal shift effects of weather shocks—specifically rain, heat waves, and cold waves—on shared bicycles (Tashu) and public transportation in Daejeon Metropolitan City. Using hourly traffic data from 2023, a Vector AutoRegression (VAR) model was constructed. To account for heterogeneity in trip purposes, the data were categorized into Weekday-Peak, Weekday-Off-Peak, and Weekend groups. The Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis revealed that shared bicycle ridership significantly declined immediately upon the occurrence of weather shocks across all groups. A distinct "asymmetric modal substitution" was observed in Weekday-Peak hours, where displaced demand shifted exclusively to the subway. This indicates a "substitution failure" of buses, likely due to their lower reliability and exposure to weather compared to the subway. In contrast, on weekends, "trip cancellation" was the dominant response. Furthermore, Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) analysis confirmed that subway ridership is structurally heavily dependent on bus ridership. Consequently, this study suggests prioritizing subway-centric resilience through weather-responsive flexible operations and enhancing bus-subway connectivity by creating seamless transfer environments to support the bus's role as a feeder mode during adverse weather.
